Commentary
Yasir Iqbal
Construction writer

Across the GCC region, Ramadan is often assumed to slow commercial activity as working hours shorten and decision cycles adjust. However, contract awards data for 2016-25 from regional project tracker MEED Projects indicates only a modest softening in the rate of contract awards.

A simple benchmark for “normal” monthly contribution is 8.3% of the annual value (one 12th of the year). Against this yardstick, the Ramadan period averages about 7% of annual contract value over the past decade, implying an average shortfall of approximately 1.3 percentage points versus an even monthly pace.

In other words, Ramadan is typically lighter than a standard month, but not significantly so.

Year-by-year Ramadan share of the annual value of contract awards in the GCC region

Year by year, Ramadan’s share of annual contract value comes in at 10.4% (2016), 6.9% (2017), 6.8% (2018), 5.4% (2019), 5.4% (2020), 7% (2021), 5.5% (2022), 5.7% (2023), 7.1% (2024) and 7.9% (2025).

The spread is meaningful. The year 2016 stands out as an unusually strong Ramadan period, while 2019-20 and 2022-23 sit well below the 8.3% benchmark. Even so, the overall pattern is one of consistent participation rather than a slowdown in awards.

The bigger factor remains the market cycle. Full-year awards eased from $126.6bn in 2016 to a low of $83.4bn in 2020, then rebounded to $140.5bn in 2021 before surging to $270bn in 2023 and $316.8bn in 2024, after which it moderated to $234.8bn in 2025.

Ramadan-period awards moved in the same direction, falling to $4.5bn in 2020 and rising to $15.3bn in 2023 and $22.5bn in 2024. This alignment suggests that project pipelines, funding conditions and award timing explain most of the volatility, with Ramadan acting as a secondary seasonal effect.